Brexit: What is it and why do people care so much?

What is Brexit? In short, British + Exit = Brexit. In 2016 the UK had a monumental vote to decide to leave the UK . On Thursday, June 23^rd 2016, a referendum (public vote) was held to decide whether the UK should leave the EU. The vote won 51% to 49% in favor of leaving.

Wait… What’s the EU?

The EU, or European Union, is an economic and political partnership made up of 28 countries. Begun after WWII to foster economic cooperation with the idea that countries who trade together will be less likely to go to war with one another. Since then it’s grown to be a single market which means that goods and people can freely move within all 28 of the EU countries. It even has its own currency, the Euro, which is used by 19 of the countries and it also has its own parliament and has many of its own rules. 

This is the European Union:

Ok so back to the UK. Why did the UK want to leave?

Apparently, the idea to leave the UK was brought forward by the UK Independence Party and was not supported by the Prime Minister (David Cameron at the time, not Theresa May). They argued that the EU was a drain on the UK and that the high price of being a member of the EU wasn’t worth it.

When is it supposed to happen?

The UK was scheduled to leave on the 29^th but the withdrawal agreement, otherwise called a “deal”, keeps being rejected by the MPs that I talked about last week. It has been postponed until May 2^nd for now, but Theresa May has requested an extension until the 30^th of June.

This is the EU flag:

What’s the deal with the deals?

The whole point of having a deal between the UK and EU is to make sure that the exit is as smooth as possible and won’t horribly impact everyone. It also keeps trade open and makes travel easier. The proposed deals come in two parts: one is a contract that sets the rules for the UK and EU’s “divorce” and talks about how much money the governments owe each other, and what happens to UK/EU citizens that are living outside of their own countries. People keep turning down Theresa May’s trade deal because they believe that it would mean the UK would still be subject to EU trade laws, but they would no longer have a say in making those laws. Another issue arises because the UK is an island, but they do have one land border with an EU country: the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Both halves of Ireland don’t want to return to the days of having border control and checkpoints along the border so an idea was proposed where Northern Ireland would stick to EU trade laws for things like produce so they wouldn’t have to have any checkpoints. Ireland had a nasty civil war for a long time, and people are afraid that opening checkpoints could trigger more issues between the north and south. The MPs don’t like this idea of open borders though because they feel like the UK would still be too tied to the EU if they did it. Three versions of this trade deal have been proposed, all three have been rejected, and time is running out.

This is a photo from one of the many Brexit protests in the UK:

What would happen if the UK left without one of these deals? Basically, it would be like chopping off a leg. The UK and EU would just split up with no guarantees about citizen’s rights of residence. So, if you’re French but are studying in the UK, there would be no guarantee that you’d be able to stay in England. Trade would be cut off which would affect food, medicine, clothing, and basically everything that comes from mainland Europe. Many believe that a no-deal Brexit would tank the UK economy, but some think that it wouldn’t be as bad since the UK wouldn’t have to pay a £39,000,000,000 divorce bill. If trade gets cut off, the UK would have to shift to world-trade laws instead of just EU laws. So, they’d be able to trade after a while, but it will be a pain.

Could Brexit be cancelled? Yes, but it would require a massive change in the law in the UK, and no one is willing to do that. Parliament would ultimately have the final say to vote on whether or not they wanted to revoke article 50 (the Brexit article). 

This is Parliament in session and discussing Brexit:

Could there be another referendum?

Many people, especially young people, are calling for another vote. Unfortunately, the government has rejected the idea of another referendum. But, because the withdrawal deal has been rejected three times so far, it’s possible that another referendum will be put forward since no one can seem to agree on what they want. I asked some of my friends about their thoughts on Brexit and here’s what they had to say:

Me: What do you think about Brexit as a whole?

Friend 1: Poorly planned and executed. Partly because David Cameron did not expect the result and May is a remainer*

Friend 2: I think Brexit is a good thing. I don’t like the idea of being ruled by rules my government didn’t vote on

Me: What kind of deal (or no-deal) do you think will go through?

Friend 1: Unsure at the moment – I’m hoping it won’t come to no deal. I would like a “soft” Brexit whereby we stay in the customs union and single market

Friend 2: I think that we will end up leaving with no deal (A lot of MP’s are pro staying in the EU), or we will be bullied by the EU into taking a deal we don’t want

Me: How do you think the result Brexit would affect the UK in the long and short term?

Friend 1: Depends on what happens. A no deal short term would be very bad for the economy. Long term is difficult to predict since no member state has ever done this before.

Friend 2: I think the short term will be a bit rough, but then we will settle into our place as an independent nation, it will drastically improve and we’ll be better off

Me: Are you hoping for another referendum and do you think it will happen?

Friend 1: At this point I don’t think we’re too far gone for another referendum. I would be surprised if we had another one although it would not be undemocratic (as some people love to suggest)*

Friend 2: I don’t want a second referendum and I think it’s unlikely to happen. The referendum deal is kind of a one-time thing, so if another happens it would be really sad. 

Here is a photo of the Brussels and EU flags hanging together on city hall. Brussels is actually the center of the EU due to its strategic position for trade.  

Theresa May was actually also in Brussels last week while I was there. She was working on trade agreements here. Here's a photo of me and some of my friends having some amazing Belgian seafood:

What do all of you think? Do you think that leaving the EU is a good idea? What do you think is going to happen with the deal? I can’t wait to read your replies and answer your questions on Friday. Chat soon!

*remainer = someone who wants to stay in the EU

* many people who support Brexit claim that another vote would go against democracy